[pigpenz]

---

how much does your choice change knowing that partner is 3433 with Max.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

I'd have some concern making 2NT, but I think chances for 9 tricks at 3NT is better than 10 in 4H .

[kenrexford]

I would assume that normally 3D is a re-transfer, unstated strength. The question(s) thdn are what 3C means and what not re-transferring means.

One reasonable method somewhat parallels Jacoby 2NT. Retransfer and then bid a new suit as a second-suit slam try; bid 3C with some shortness slam try. Roughly that.

If you want to add in a choice call, perhaps re-T and then 3NT.

If you want to add in a mild 3NT invite, perhaps not re-transferring works.

[gnasher]

I'd expect that an immediate 3NT offers a choice of games, and retransfer followed by 3NT is (non-)serious. That's the logical way around, because it ensures that the final contract is always played by opener, whereas Ken's suggestion doesn't.

On this hand it looks clear to offer a choice of games, because the hearts are probably running, the side queen is in my doubleton, and there's a high risk of four losers in 4♥.

[pigpenz]

i was interested in the statistics that
when the 1NT bidder can be
anything but 3433 4♥63% 3NT 25%
but when NT opener is 3433 then it flips 4♥25% 3NT 60%
I ran 2000 hands through dealmaster pro for both.

[kenrexford]

 gnasher, on 2012-May-06, 11:19, said:

I'd expect that an immediate 3NT offers a choice of games, and retransfer followed by 3NT is (non-)serious. That's the logical way around, because it ensures that the final contract is always played by opener, whereas Ken's suggestion doesn't.

On this hand it looks clear to offer a choice of games, because the hearts are probably running, the side queen is in my doubleton, and there's a high risk of four losers in 4♥.

my waY right sides when gfm only not if invit.

[CSGibson]

Partner knows you have 5 hearts, he can pull himself if he wants to. 3N

[gnasher]

 kenrexford, on 2012-May-06, 17:31, said:

my waY right sides when gfm only not if invit.

Had you had a long and productive lunch when you wrote this comment? It's not quite up to your usual standards of clarity.

As I understand it, we're both playing 3♦ as a retransfer. The difference I was talking about is in the meanings of ...2NT-3NT and ...2NT-3♦;3♥-3NT.

In the slow sequence to 3NT, opener has bid both hearts and notrumps, so opener will always play the hand.

If we raise 2NT directly to 3NT, nobody has bid hearts. In my suggested methods, this 3NT is a choice of games, so opener will either pass or bid 4♥, and opener always plays the hand. In your suggested methods, this 3NT is a mild slam try, so there is a possibility that responder will play the hand in 6♥ (or possibly in 4♥ after a cue-bid and a signoff).

Having said this, we might be better off leaving the declarership undecided. With the points fairly evenly divided and with opener's shape already known, we might actually want responder to play the hand. So maybe your scheme is better.

[gszes]

assuming the 2n promises all side suits stopped at least
1 1/2 times it appears 3n will likley have a greater chance
of success than 4h. I would change my bid to 4h if my clubs
were xx vs Qx (with the Q elsewhere).

[jogs]

 pigpenz, on 2012-May-06, 12:03, said:

i was interested in the statistics that
when the 1NT bidder can be
anything but 3433 4♥63% 3NT 25%
but when NT opener is 3433 then it flips 4♥25% 3NT 60%
I ran 2000 hands through dealmaster pro for both.

I don't understand your study.
Are you saying with 5-3 hearts 4♥ makes 63% of the time?
While with 5-4 hearts 4♥ makes only 25% of the time.

I don't believe it. Please recheck your work.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

 jogs, on 2012-May-07, 07:19, said:

I don't understand your study.
Are you saying with 5-3 hearts 4♥ makes 63% of the time?
While with 5-4 hearts 4♥ makes only 25% of the time.

I don't believe it. Please recheck your work.

I think his study is definitely interesting and I think correct.
With Opener's 3 4 3 3 you can never get more than 5 Ht tricks.
There is no available 6th trump trick via a ruff .
You will be essentially playing NT anyway.
The legitimate concern of course is unprotected suits, but as I said before, I would think the chances for 9 tricks here is better than for 10.... even if ♠ were Q x x and ♣ were x x .

[pigpenz]

 jogs, on 2012-May-07, 07:19, said:

I don't understand your study.
Are you saying with 5-3 hearts 4♥ makes 63% of the time?
While with 5-4 hearts 4♥ makes only 25% of the time.

I don't believe it. Please recheck your work.

no taking the north hand as set
we can change the constraints for the south hand
16-17 HCP
A-3433 shape
B-2-5♠,4♥,2-5♦,2-5♣ for distribution with 16-17 HCP

thats what the two studies were done on

and yes there could be more merit to having the 5 ♥ hand declare in 4♥
I will have to look at that as all the deep finesse run throughs were with south as declarer in 4♥ not north

[Fluffy]

I also though you meant that 2NT was 3 or 4 hearts. on the 63-25 simulation.

[pigpenz]

 Fluffy, on 2012-May-07, 08:27, said:

I also though you meant that 2NT was 3 or 4 hearts. on the 63-25 simulation.

no in both cases there was four card support, but when there is more options for
distribution on the NT opening then chances for 4♥ is around 60+%
once its set at 3433 the %'s reverse .

I did just a few hands and statistically 4♥ still plays about 3% better from
NT side even when 3433....but still only 22-25% for success in taking 10 tricks.

this would be an interesting problem for matchpoints cause in the long run it looks like
you would gain alot of matchpoints just by playing 3♥.

[Zelandakh]

 pigpenz, on 2012-May-07, 07:45, said:

B-2-5♠,4♥,2-5♦,2-5♣ for distribution with 16-17 HCP

Are players really opening 5♠4♥ hands 1NT in America now as standard? How about excluding the 5 card suits for a Case C: 4♥(432) with 16-17 hcp, and seeing where that takes us (losing the 5 card suits gets rid of the double fit hands). Then throw in Case D: 3-4 spades, 4♥, 3-4 diamonds, 2♣ with 16-17 hcp. This might tell us if it is the possible presence of a pointed suit ruff which is helping to tip the balance.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

 pigpenz, on 2012-May-06, 12:03, said:

i was interested in the statistics that
when the 1NT bidder can be
anything but 3433 4♥63% 3NT 25%
but when NT opener is 3433 then it flips 4♥25% 3NT 60%
I ran 2000 hands through dealmaster pro for both.

I think your simulation shows the great value of the 2NT! super-accept ( w/ 3 4 3 3 ).

I know most just use the 3M-jump to super-accept, but I have a feeling that the "worthless doubleton" is also an important game "decider" .

[TWO4BRIDGE]

 pigpenz, on 2012-May-07, 07:45, said:

A-3433 shape
B-2-5♠,4♥,2-5♦,2-5♣ for distribution with 16-17 HCP

thats what the two studies were done on.

oooops... I missed the 5s/4h situations.
I'm with Zel.... I don't think you want Opener with 5s/4h... Hold it to a max of 4 cards Spades.

[pigpenz]

 TWO4BRIDGE, on 2012-May-07, 17:40, said:

oooops... I missed the 5s/4h situations.
I'm with Zel.... I don't think you want Opener with 5s/4h... Hold it to a max of 4 cards Spades.

i can take out the option for a fifth spade and see what happens but the problem is that knowing
that the Notrump opener is 3433 with max values
the orignal 2-5 patterns were for just a base to compare against, but I can see what the % is for 4♥
by
♠2-4
♥4
♦2-5
♣2-5


ran 500 hands with above constraints still 2:1 4♥/3NT

[Zelandakh]

I got my cases a bit mixed up in the previous post. So far we have

A: 3=4=3=3: 3NT 60%, 4♥ 25%
B: 4 hearts, 2-5 all other suits: 3NT 25%, 4♥ 63%
C: 4 hearts, 2-4 spades, 2-5 minors: 3NT X%, 4♥ 2X% (for unknown X)
D: 4 hearts, 4-3-2 in the other 3 suits: ?
E: 4 hearts, 2 clubs, 3-4 other suits: ?

Case E is of particular interest to me here initially as it is the only one that specifically removes both the factor of a double fit and of a ruffing feature. If E is reasonably similar to A then D becomes very interesting too. Each of these hand types is essentially one step better for 3NT and worse for 4♥. What I am looking to see is how big the steps are between B:C:D:E:A. Somewhere along the way there is likely to be a large switch. From finding out where we can ascertain what the key features are to probe for on this particular hand. If we find that these features are a good metric on a large variety of hands then it might suggest a method for superaccepts in general.

[rmnka447]

If 2 NT shows 3-4-3-3 and max, then 3 NT probably plays as well as or better 4 ♥. Opener (the shorter ♥ hand) can get no ruffs to increase the number of tricks taken at a ♥ contract. Responder can also see there's no possibility of more than a single ruff in the long ♥ hand (i.e. a "reversal" type play).