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We are red
1. What is your bid?
2. Estimate the balance between risk and reward in bidding.
2. Estimate the probability that NS have a game on.
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Big pre-empt
#1
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Posted 2012-March-15, 04:19
We are red
1. What is your bid?
2. Estimate the balance between risk and reward in bidding.
2. Estimate the probability that NS have a game on.
May 2003: Mission accomplished
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
#2
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Posted 2012-March-15, 04:44
I would double. Do not expect many overtricks.
Kind Regards
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#3
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Posted 2012-March-15, 08:51
What can you do but double?
Sure, partner will usually sit....probably 90% of the time, or even more, given your club void. Sure, they may make this, and even have a trick in the bank. And on a bad day, rho sends it back.
But: most of the time they will fail, and sometimes by 2 tricks.
I'm not particularly worried about protecting our equity in game, since I assume that if 5♣ is normal, my teammates, at imps, and the field, at mps, will protect us most of the time. But if partner has a freak, and wasn't able to bid directly, then I will be happy to hear him make a bid. That is a slight upside to doubling, but I double primarily because I want to turn 100 into 200, 200 into 500...at the risk of turning -600 into -750.
Sure, partner will usually sit....probably 90% of the time, or even more, given your club void. Sure, they may make this, and even have a trick in the bank. And on a bad day, rho sends it back.
But: most of the time they will fail, and sometimes by 2 tricks.
I'm not particularly worried about protecting our equity in game, since I assume that if 5♣ is normal, my teammates, at imps, and the field, at mps, will protect us most of the time. But if partner has a freak, and wasn't able to bid directly, then I will be happy to hear him make a bid. That is a slight upside to doubling, but I double primarily because I want to turn 100 into 200, 200 into 500...at the risk of turning -600 into -750.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#4
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Posted 2012-March-15, 08:53
Easy double.
If p passes we will have a good chance to beat it, I have 1,5-2 tricks and partner is also a favourite to hold a trick.
If p runs we will probably play in a reasonable fit, and the major suit finesses will be onside, and we wont go for a very bid number even if p is broke. Ofc we may go for 500, while 5♣ is down one. But as soon as 1 of the contracts makes bidding will be right.
If p passes we will have a good chance to beat it, I have 1,5-2 tricks and partner is also a favourite to hold a trick.
If p runs we will probably play in a reasonable fit, and the major suit finesses will be onside, and we wont go for a very bid number even if p is broke. Ofc we may go for 500, while 5♣ is down one. But as soon as 1 of the contracts makes bidding will be right.
#5
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Posted 2012-March-15, 09:05
Double. Was going to make a Michaels joke, but nah.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
#6
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Posted 2012-March-15, 09:48
Double expecting a push at teams regardless of what happens next unless West is gambling or something funny happens at the other table.
As mikeh points out you lose very little at -750 vs -600 with a much larger upside.
At mp's I still double because partner will understand and I hate to be pushed around.
As mikeh points out you lose very little at -750 vs -600 with a much larger upside.
At mp's I still double because partner will understand and I hate to be pushed around.
When a deaf person goes to court is it still called a hearing?
What is baby oil made of?
What is baby oil made of?
#7
- Redoubling with gusto
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Posted 2012-March-15, 09:49
X
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg
"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other. -- Hamman, re: Wolff
"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other. -- Hamman, re: Wolff
#8
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Posted 2012-March-16, 03:45
NAE: I think I have to double here, 5/5 majors makes it plausible we will arrive at a playable spot, and void clubs makes it hugely more likely that pard wants me to reopen with a double. Then again they are first in at red. Playing against myself, clear double. Playing against a 'I always have my bid pard' pair I might pass, but eh, double.
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