Posted 2012-January-16, 11:09
We have the ability to squeeze LHO in the blacks or RHO in the pointed, or LHO in the minors, but have to commit to one or the other before we can test diamonds....and won't we look silly if we play for the black suit squeeze and diamonds were 3-3 all along?
I would find out as much as I could....so duck the first club, win the spade and cash the club A, two top hearts and the diamond K, then two more hearts, pitching a spade and a diamond from dummy. This reduces to a 5 card ending, in which I have preserved all squeezes and the 3-3 diamond split.
I have x void AQx x in dummy and Ax x x x in hand. The black squeeze sees me cash the last heart, pitching a diamond, and then cashing the diamond AQ. The LHO minor squeeze sees me cashing the last heart, pitching a spade, then the top spade, crushing LHO. The pointed suit squeeze sees me cashing the heart, pitching a club, and RHO can't hold 2 spades and 3 diamonds.
What do I know at this stage?
If LHO has shown, for example, a void diamond and 5 clubs, it is trivial to choose the black suit squeeze. Had he shown 6 clubs and at least 4 red cards, I'd play for the pointed suit squeeze on rho.
On some combinations, I will not have enough info to infer one line over the other, so would opt to squeeze rho in the pointed because doing so preserves the original 3-3 diamond break.
Btw, I wouldn't place a lot of credence in the inferences from the switch to the spade 2 unless I knew my opponents reasonably well. This is a speedball, where average or below average players will often make errors that they wouldn't make in a longer event (I think that goes for good players as well, especially if they are the type of good player who is very methodical in normal circumstances). Maybe LHO was afraid of picking off Jxxx in either red or Jxxx in hearts and was looking at Jxxx in diamonds.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari