[Bussy]

Hi there,

Your hand (South):

♠ 1096
♥ K1085
♦ Q964
♣ 98

Bidding goes (East=Dealer / non-vul vs. vul.):

1 ♠ - Pass - 2 ♣ - Pass
2 ♥ - Pass - 4 ♠ - 4 NT
Pass - 5 ♦ - 5 ♠ - Pass
Pass - Pass

Which card do you lead?

2 ♣ = natural/ 11+
4 NT = minors

[mike777]

I'll guess a trump.

[mikeh]

I doubt that a trump will ever do any good.

Dummy has at least 4 trumps and may have 5, but didn't splinter, or J2N. So I'd place him with about 11 or 12, with extra trump and two hearts. 4=2=2=5 makes sense and maybe even 5=2=2=4. I'm not saying he needs to be these shapes, but we do have to make some assumptions when choosing a lead and these are the assumptions I am making at this point.

I think I have a heart trick. I don't see how a club could be necessary at this stage....if we were defending 4♠, I think there is a better case that a club might promote our 4th trick, but we only need 3. And a club could be a disaster if rho is 5=5=2=1 and LHO has something like Kxxxx xx Jx AKxx.

Since LHO bid 5♠ knowing that a club lead was possible, and we could well be short, since we bid 5♦, I'd tend to place him with at least the club A.

So I lead a diamond...whatever my conventional card from Qxxx is.

Btw, while I lead a diamond here at any scoring, it is generally a good idea to identify the scoring. Our goals at mps can be quite different than our goals at imps, and this can influence the lead (as well as the bidding and the inferences one can draw therefrom).

[Fluffy]

2♣ bidder was joking because he didn´t want a club lead, smart partner unfolded the psyche, so take advantage of it and lead a club

[Free]

I would lead a ♣ all the time, it's through strength and to partner's suit. Leading ♦ gives us only a small chance of creating a trick, since I expect partner to have at least 5 ♦s and they probably won't split 2-2.

[gszes]

the hand seems badly placed for the opps
they have no running suits and their best
chance for 11 tricks would seem to be via
crossruff. P may indeed have good clubs
but that alone probably wont help us set
this hand.

My vote is for small trump.

[diejowae]

Small ♥ hope Partner two cards ♥ + Ace ( ♥Ax ) and trump 3-th heart.OR hope partner void heart.

[WellSpyder]

So it only takes 6 posts to get at least one supporter for each suit.....

[Phil]

When I looked at this initially I thought, trump, WTP? After reading the other posts, nothing convinces me this is a bad idea. On a good day, we will get the chance to lead three rounds although partner may need to be up to unblocking his ♥Jx on the 2nd round of trump.

My 2nd choice is a club not because I think they are jobbing me (@Fluffy - what kind of hand psyches 2♣ consistent with this bidding?), but because it might take partner off a late endplay.

[Bussy]

Hi!

Tx for your answers. Here is the deal from our club tourney. There is just one killing lead... but can you really find it?
I don't know why, but West never have shown his ♥'s. I usually dont like trump leads, here I have chosen a useless trump lead.
Is there a scientific way to find the killing lead? Or it is just luck?

Regards Bussy

---

[Free]

Sorry, but even GIB can't find the killing lead.

[benlessard]

There is nothing worse than a lead problem in a hand you already lost in the bidding. I would lead a trump without conviction

[whereagles]

Diamond seems clear. To me at least.

[Fluffy]

 Phil, on 2011-December-12, 11:18, said:

(@Fluffy - what kind of hand psyches 2♣ consistent with this bidding?)

Any hand with 5 (4) spades and doubleton club, either xx or Ax. Kxx and xxx are also possible, I do this kind of bids all the time whith minimum GF values to give clients who want results over learning an edge over the field.

[P_Marlowe]

Clubs?

Partner bid them, and they were bid by dummy.

Do I expect to make lots of clubs? No - But I try to collect all tricks
out side trumps as fast as possibe, and clubs needs to be played from my
side.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[dake50]

Does they're not in 6S suggest D-doubleton
or C-doubleton in their long spades hand?
I think a club doubleton would slam this
after partner's club suit shown.

Lead a Diamond.

[ArtK78]

 Bussy, on 2011-December-13, 05:44, said:

Hi!

Tx for your answers. Here is the deal from our club tourney. There is just one killing lead... but can you really find it?
I don't know why, but West never have shown his ♥'s. I usually dont like trump leads, here I have chosen a useless trump lead.
Is there a scientific way to find the killing lead? Or it is just luck?

Regards Bussy

---

Pardon me for being dense, but what is the killing lead? It seems that 11 tricks (no more, no less) are cold on any lead (pardon me - 12 tricks can be made on a heart lead).

[FrancesHinden]

 ArtK78, on 2011-December-16, 11:47, said:

Pardon me for being dense, but what is the killing lead? It seems that 11 tricks (no more, no less) are cold on any lead (pardon me - 12 tricks can be made on a heart lead).

Correct.

[han]

40% to west for the bidding and 60% to the OP for posting this.

[Bussy]

 ArtK78, on 2011-December-16, 11:47, said:

Pardon me for being dense, but what is the killing lead? It seems that 11 tricks (no more, no less) are cold on any lead (pardon me - 12 tricks can be made on a heart lead).

Sorry, my fault. West did not hold 10 of ♣. North did. So East cant discard all his ♥-losers on ♣.