[JLOGIC]

I embarrassingly got this hand wrong at the club today (matchpoints). See if you can do better than me.

You hold AQx J 9x KJ98xxx

After 2 passes to you, you open 3C w/r. LHO overcalls 3D and everyone passes. Your partner leads the 2 of hearts, showing an odd number of hearts. You see this:

---

Yes, dummy made a retarded pass but that is not really your concern. Declarer takes the ace of hearts and leads another heart. What is your plan and why?

[rduran1216]

I think holding this to three may be good for us. I'll ruff, play 9 of clubs, win partner's spade with the A and play the 5 of clubs, maybe declarer will ruff small, or maybe partner will now cash the K of spades to set the contract.

[jmcw]

Usually I get this stuff wrong, but this one intriques me, so I'll try.

Looks like p is leading from 7 ♥ to the Q but did not open 3♥ in 1st seat. Would he make this lead holding 1 or 2 ♣, I guess not.

So partner is 4720 and declarer 2362, declarer should not have the AK of ♦ since he might play them immediately before ruffing a ♥, so declarer has kx kxx aqjxxx xx.

I ruff the ♥ and return the ♣K, p ruffs and shoots back a ♠ etc. We get 4 tricks and -110

Now I wait to see what I should have done

[JLOGIC]

jmcw, on 2011-December-23, 01:13, said:

So partner is 4720 and declarer 2362, declarer should not have the AK of ♦ since he might play them immediately before ruffing a ♥, so declarer has kx kxx aqjxxx xx.

Why wouldn't declarer play a trump first if that is is hand? Not that the opps are great, but that would be a very unusual and counter-intuitive play to a bad player to just play a heart.

Also, what are the odds that partner has passed with xxxx QTxxxxx Kx --- w/r at MP in first seat? I know it was my partner so I should know this better than you, but that seems like it would be quite odd opposite a typical expert.

Are there any other possible layouts? You seem to have ruled out one without even considering it. I am not saying whether you are right or wrong, but there are 2 glaring inconsistencies with the layout you described, so it would be helpful if we could find an alternative and compare them.

[Antrax]

JLOGIC, my other guess was that declarer has five hearts and plans to ruff three in dummy, but that's a really stupid plan once the 2 is led. Either hearts are 5-3-3-2 and then he only needs (and can get) one ruff, or they're 5-5-1-2 and then unless I'm 7-5, I'll be able to overruf dummy.

[jmcw]

JLOGIC, on 2011-December-23, 03:25, said:

Why wouldn't declarer play a trump first if that is is hand? Not that the opps are great, but that would be a very unusual and counter-intuitive play to a bad player to just play a heart.

Also, what are the odds that partner has passed with xxxx QTxxxxx Kx --- w/r at MP in first seat? I know it was my partner so I should know this better than you, but that seems like it would be quite odd opposite a typical expert.

Are there any other possible layouts? You seem to have ruled out one without even considering it. I am not saying whether you are right or wrong, but there are 2 glaring inconsistencies with the layout you described, so it would be helpful if we could find an alternative and compare them.

Ok here's my 2nd try and then I'll leave it to the experts.
Partner doesn't have an odd number of ♥, he's getting cute and the lead is suit pref for ♣.
So give partner 4630 and declarer 2452, declarer assumes ♥ are 5/2 and goes about ruffing ♥ thinking it is safe to do so.
Agree that it is odd partner would pass with 7♥, but if he has only 5 then declare must have 5 also, this too seems unlikely.

[mike777]

I'll give it a try and then read why I was wrong.

I will play pard to be 6=5=2=0 and declarer to b 0=5=6=2


but then if I give pard the K of s and Qh and declarer the Kh pard would not make that lead. He would lead a low s or higher h. sooo.....

maybe:

give pard 7h and an outside K.

Kxxx...Qxxxxxx..Jx...void

xx...Kxx...AKQTxx..xx

but then he would pull two rounds of trumps so:

back to:

Kxxxxx...Qxxxx...Jx...void

void...Kxxxx...AKQxxx...xx

I would assume declarer would play low if he had the QH.

but again declarer could pull trump....win 3 clubs and ruff a h so that wont work.(edit I keep getting the diagram mixed up the way it looks I thought clbs were behind me not in front of me.)
--

maybe:

Kxxxxx...xxxxx..AX...void

void..KQxxx..KQJXXX...xx

or

xxxx...Qxxxxxx..Kx...void

Kx...Kxx....AQJxxx...xx

--


so anyway I ruff and lead K of clubs asking for a spade back.

hope for 1 spade and 3 d tricks.


xxxx...QTxxxxx..Kx..void

Kx...Kxx..AQJxxx..xx

[matmat]

I'd be willing to play declarer for 1561 and partner for 5521 with a natural diamond trick, which is why they didn't lead a club, thinking they do not want a ruff and there will be ample time to switch if needed later. declarer could be 2560, but then might have taken a discard on the club ace (or they could be waiting for a misdefence, or are sure I have the SA for some reason and they're sitting there with Kx).

Anyhow. I am not sure where declarer is getting 9 tricks from, aside of a cross-ruff, so I think i'm ruffing in and playing back a trump. hopefully partner can get in (possibly even on this trump) and push another through.

[mike777]

It seems if declarer is K...Kxxxx..KQJxxx...x she has nine tricks...5d+ 1 ruff+2h+1c if we pull trump.

[JLOGIC]

As some of you have figured out, the other alternative to partner having 7 hearts is that partner has 5 hearts. For some reason it is easy to mentally dismiss this possibility since it gives LHO 5 hearts, but there is no reason LHO could no have 5 hearts and 6 diamonds.

I will assume that partner would lead a club if he had one. Even if he had a natural trump trick he'd rather lead our suit since it's the safest option.

This means partner is either 6520, or 4720. With 4720 w/r at MP, many people would preempt something in first seat (especially given that partner has a heart honor). With 6520, partner would almost always pass. Mike777 rules out partner being 6520 because he would lead "a low spade or a high heart." I don't understand that. Leading a low heart showed an odd number of hearts, that what he has. When you have a void, your leads don't transform into suit preference. In fact, on this hand, when you fail to lead a club your partner will probably figure out you're void anyways. Just leading your systemic card is important.

Now, whether partner would lead a spade or a heart is debatable, but personally I think leading from a king when partner has preempted in a side suit will give up a trick extremely often, and leading from QT would almost always be preferable.

It is possible LHO would have bid differently with 0562, but his hand is probably pretty weak (at best --- Kxxxx AKQJxx xx), he has 2 small in our suit, his partner is a passed hand, and we don't even know if he had leaping michaels available if he wanted to bid it (judging by the quality of RHOs pass of 3D, they probably don't even play leaping michaels).

Already, it looks to me that 6520 is much more likely for partner than 4720 just from the bidding. Now, what can we make of LHO playing a heart at trick 2? This play is extremely weird if LHO has Kxx of hearts. Why wouldn't he just play trumps, he only has 1 heart loser to ruff. Bad players may be bad, but they still make plays for a reason, and it is very counter intuitive to just play a heart at trick 2 when you could be pulling trumps, ESPECIALLY with our partner having a club void looming.

What about if LHO had Kxxxx of hearts? A heart play now feels much more natural, after all they have 3 heart losers to ruff. Mike777 suggests they could just pull trumps, but then they have to lose all the hearts. On the surface they don't really lose much by playing a heart immediately, if we ruff, we have ruffed their loser. Now, maybe they did not analyze that deeply, but I feel really confident that playing a heart here is much more indicitave of a declarer with 3 heart losers than 1.

Say declarer has --- Kxxxx AKQJxx xx. What can we do anyways? Well if we ruff and play a club, our partner ruffs, but declarer ruffs the spade return and pulls trumps in 1 round, and can ruff his 2 other heart losers for making 5. If we pitch, declarer will take 2 hearts, 6 diamonds, 1 club and 1 ruff for making 4. BTW, if this is declarers hand, everything that has happened so far is quite normal imo, it is the only layout that makes sense (partner didn't open in first seat, LHO overcalled 3D, partner led a heart, LHO continued hearts).

If declarers diamonds are slightly less good like --- Kxxxx AKQxxx xx or -- Kxxxx AKJxxx xx then declarers line is not clear but it is not clearly wrong either. Playing 2 rounds of trumps is not great on 3-1 trumps, however it is good when I have Hx of trumps to prevent us from scoring 4 ruffs with 10 top tricks available for declarer. That being said, if declarer has chosen to play this way with one of these hands, ruffing and playing a club will be fatal for the same reason, declarer can pull trumps in 1 round and ruff 2 hearts for making five. Again, we would need to pitch to hold it to 4.

At the table I ruffed without even thinking, when I saw partners low heart I placed them with 4720, decided they didn't preempt because of the side 4 card major, and did not even stop to reconsider when declarer played a heart at trick 2. I was on board with giving partner 2 club ruffs via my SA entry. There is some cognitive bias in play here that causes people (including me) to eliminate the possiblity of partner having only 5 hearts even when it makes more sense, because it would give LHO 5 hearts, even though there is no inherent reason LHO cannot have 5 hearts.

[mike777]

Ya I kept gettting the layout of the clubs with the diagram confused thus my post.

As you point out declarer makes 4 or 5 if 0562 and pard 6520.

I would have played pard for 4720 trying to hold him to 3.

I think that is why I tended toward rejecting pard having only 5h along with the fact I would not open 3h with an outside K and that I would lead a spade over a h very often.


I am glad you commented on the opening lead issues and why you lead from QTxxx and not Kxxxxx. I did not know that. I would have lead a low spade before your posting with that holding.


"Now, whether partner would lead a spade or a heart is debatable, but personally I think leading from a king when partner has preempted in a side suit will give up a trick extremely often, and leading from QT would almost always be preferable."


btw as a sidenote I think some nonexperts (me) tend to not preempt with an outside ace or king so one more reason why pard for me might be 4720. Perhaps that is far from expert standard?

[Antrax]

I discounted declarer having 6-5 in the reds because I would overcalled hearts even with longer diamonds. Am I wrong or was he?

[JLOGIC]

Seems like quite a gamble to overcall 3H with --- K9xxx AKJxxx xx opposite a passed hand and a 3C opener by RHO. It could work out well, but it's obvious how it could work out terribly. Personally I would rather overcall 3D than 3H and don't think it's all that close. If I had a better hand or a better heart suit, I would consider 3H.

[jmcw]

JLOGIC, on 2011-December-23, 17:12, said:

As some of you have figured out, the other alternative to partner having 7 hearts is that partner has 5 hearts. For some reason it is easy to mentally dismiss this possibility since it gives LHO 5 hearts, but there is no reason LHO could no have 5 hearts and 6 diamonds.

I will assume that partner would lead a club if he had one. Even if he had a natural trump trick he'd rather lead our suit since it's the safest option.......<snip>

I struggled to place declarer with 5♥, but once you reach that conclusion then the defence becomes clear(er).

Tx for the hand