manudude03, on 2011-October-26, 18:47, said:
You make 3 tricks on all 3-2 breaks. With the 4-1 breaks that can be picked up (ignoring KQJx-x):
Ace first picks up any stiff honour (6 out of 8 cases).
Running the 9 picks up all 1=4 breaks (5 our of 8)
Low to the 9 picks up the same breaks (5 out of 8)
Low to T picks up singleton small offside or singleton honour onside (5 out of 8).
With the 0=5 break, all except cashing the ace first picks it up. But a specific 4-1 break is more likely than a specific 5-0 break (I think), so cashing ace wins (I think!).
Edit: In reality, low to the 9 will often be better against weak opps, west playing an honour from HHxx.
reedit: low to the 9 and cashing ace let you make 2 tricks with a 5=0 break. I'll avoid any more edits before sleeping lol.
I don't think there are 8 cases. I think there are 5 cards that can be singleton in either of the two hands makes 10 cases. Unless I'm misunderstanding your arithmetic and its meaning.