[mtvesuvius]

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IMPs, opponents don't open too light (so LHO can have lots of hands with 11 and 5♥). What's your lead?

The hands at the table don't really match the auction at all so the actual result is fairly irrelevant, but I would be very interested to see a simulation on this hand as well -- I'd do it myself but I forgot to bring my copy of Dealmaster Pro with me

[pooltuna]

sounds like declarer is 5233 so I am inclined to lead a ♣ (the T to avoid potential blockage problems). I expect partner to be something like 1444 1453 or 1435

[vianu2]

7♠ (or 2 is better?)

[vianu2]

Kidding or not, but i have 13 and opps 11+13-14 =24-25
So partner has 2-3 hcps and the only way to set this contract is
J♠ and Q or J?♥ to partner (j10♠ would be fine but 10 could be find on dummy ).
I dont care of leading minors because my partner cant have entries to take his suit.

Hey 9x♠ to partner then an extra tric (a queen, a king) may be enough.
Once i led against 1NT- 2cl-2h-3NT heart to declarer's holding ,i gave 3 trics but i made 2 (plus another ace and king, and my partner made his jack and we set the contract). Notice: he had only a jack:)

[Phil]

If I'm going to set this hand, I'm not going to set it in spades, nor either of the red suits.

That leaves clubs. I need partner to have a heart honor and the club J. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable parlay - I have 13 points and on this particular auction partner could have four.

I need to lead either ♣Q or T to have a chance, since the suit could be blocked if I lead low and declarer wins the 1st two rounds.

After the club lead knocks out one honor, the suit will be cleared when a heart is led since I will pop Ace and clear out the other club stopper.

They can run some diamonds, but I am hoping declarer doesn't have more than 1♠, 1♥, 4♦'s and two ♣'s after this start.

[vianu2]

Phil, on 2011-August-08, 20:12, said:

If I'm going to set this hand, I'm not going to set it in spades, nor either of the red suits.

That leaves clubs. I need partner to have a heart honor and the club J. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable parlay - I have 13 points and on this particular auction partner could have four.

I need to lead either ♣Q or T to have a chance, since the suit could be blocked if I lead low and declarer wins the 1st two rounds.

After the club lead knocks out one honor, the suit will be cleared when a heart is led since I will pop Ace and clear out the other club stopper.

They can run some diamonds, but I am hoping declarer doesn't have more than 1♠, 1♥, 4♦'s and two ♣'s after this start.

Hm can i suggest that simple assumption :
Having only Ax in ♥ and only 3 clubs u have not communications with your partner.
Why do u think declarer will need more than one ♥ tric to make the contract?
He takes his trics in minors (ducking a club) then his k♥ so now we count:
4♦+1♥+2♣ and then he plays 10♠ to you and waiting for the last 2 trics in spade.
What else ? U need exactly K♥ to partner, i need only a J-x or 9-x or even j single in ♠ and some stopper in heart.

[Phil]

vianu2, on 2011-August-09, 01:29, said:

Hm can i suggest that simple assumption :

No

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2011-August-09, 08:18, said:

No

[vianu2]

MrAce, on 2011-August-09, 09:30, said:

[mikeh]

I don't see how being a hero with the spade lead is likely to accomplish much beyond a loss of tempo.....yes, if partner holds J9 or J10, we'll be happy we led the suit, but this strikes me as against the odds.

Meanwhile, why not play him for more plausible holdings such as J9xx in hearts, the club J with some length, and so on. Go passive....the spades are going to disappoint declarer...if the hearts are H10xxx in dummy and Hx in his hand, my heart A will do some damage, and so on.

I think we need more in spades to go active, and while the club 10, in a vacuum, seems very aggressive, I think, in the context of the hand, that it is about as passive as one can get, while preserving some element of aggression. So I lead the 10....I slightly prefer the 10 to the Q tho I doubt that there would be any difference in the real world.

[vianu2]

I don't understand why we should take in calculus only that shape : 5 clubs to partner.
Partner needs exactly one card: the k♥ to have an entry (not the queen).
Responder may have 1-5-3-4 or 0-5-4-4 and i can see no more than 2 trics in diamonds
(j10xx to partner is possible).
Will be nice to lead your ten and to clear 4 trics in club.

I wonder why the opener didn't start with 1NT. Balanced 5-3-3-2 15 hcps.
Because of the weakness in spade?
Ok i know! u can bid 2nt with 5-1-4-3 but that leaves partner with 5 hearts and then less clubs.
I would credit W with good hearts (with at least K) for his 2h bidding (instead of 1NT).
Is not against the odds to bid 2h w/o ak? Why not bid 1NT?
Yea i'm a goof but i like to stay outside most.

[vianu2]

mikeh, on 2011-August-09, 13:05, said:

Go passive....the spades are going to disappoint declarer...if the hearts are H10xxx in dummy and Hx in his hand, my heart A will do some damage, and so on.

Cannot go passive. Any passive lead will give the contract (10♣ is not at all passive). Ok i want to lead spade because none doesn't like)).But the second choice is the su..club.

[nige1]

mtvesuvius wrote "IMPs, opponents don't open too light (so LHO can have lots of hands with 11 and 5♥). What's your lead? The hands at the table don't really match the auction at all so the actual result is fairly irrelevant, but I would be very interested to see a simulation on this hand as well -- I'd do it myself but I forgot to bring my copy of Dealmaster Pro with me "


IMO ♣Q = 10, ♣T = 9, ♣7 = 8, ♥A = 7, ♦Q = 6, ♠2 = 5.

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[vianu2]

nige1, on 2011-August-09, 21:49, said:

Q = 10, ♣T = 9, ♣7 = 8, ♥A = 7, ♦Q = 6, ♠2 = 5. [/hv]

The poster exceeded my expectations : i got 5 points for a spade lead hurraaaa!!

[jonottawa]

If the hands at the table don't match the auction at all I lead a spade.