[rogerclee]

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Playing IMPs, all vulnerable, LHO leads the ♥K and then quickly shifts to the ♦Q.

Once you have figured the above out, how should you play if the auction had gone 2H X 4H 4S?

[vuroth]

I'm fairly rusty, but all I see is:
- finese K♣
- endplay east in ♣
- drop the K♣

The finesse works if west was 3613 or 4612 with the K♣, or opened 2♥ with more than 10 HCP, which would be baffling considering east's raise.

The endplay works if east has exactly 3 diamonds, and the singleton ace of spades (barring some bizarre heart blockage). That leaves east with 3640. (NB: if east has 4 diamonds and we eliminate the reds and throw east in with the ace of spades, he can still exit a diamond - the ruff and sluff does not solve the club problem.) If diamonds are 2-5 or 1-6, I risk additional undertricks.

The drop works if east started with 0634 or 1624.

I guess I'll try the drop, but against weak opps I'd probably just finesse, in case their leads/bids are weird.

[Antraxxx]

The drop seems unlikely - the K♥ lead suggest he also has the queen and the Q♦ switch suggests the jack, though even without it the K♣ would put him on 10 HCP. Moreover, the opponents only bid to 3H with a 10-card fit, which probably means the opening leader has more than the promised 6 cards in hearts, I think. Otherwise it just seems really likely that his partner would've raised to game, with 4 hearts including the A and enough points to know they split evenly.
So the K♣ is wrong and won't drop, which is why I personally have no clue how to go about this.

[han]

My first thought is to win in dummy, play a spade to the king and, assuming my king of spades holds, finesse in clubs. I'll need RHO to hold Kxx of clubs and Axx of spades, and to duck the ace of spades.

[mike777]

As a nonexpert I guess I would try:
1) WIN A OF D
2) ruff a h.
3) lead a low spade off dummy.
4) now what happens?

[vuroth]

Nice, han. I see it now.

[Antraxxx]

I don't. Why would they duck the ace?
[edit]
Or even if he ducks, why not return a diamond?

[Phil]

Han's line is kind of 'obvious', but I do not see why East would not pop ♠A and return a diamond.

I'm pretty sure East is 3433. I might have something else in mind. What diamond spot did East play at T1?

[JLOGIC]

 Phil, on 2011-January-12, 12:35, said:

Han's line is kind of 'obvious', but I do not see why East would not pop ♠A and return a diamond.

If you're opps never make mistakes, it's hard to win. Ducking is a natural mistake, I agree it should be easily avoidable by someone with the CK, but people are trained into second hand low, duck to make them guess, duck in tempo when in doubt, etc etc.

Likewise, if you never gave them a chance to make a mistake, it would be hard to win. If we were playing for our life and undertricks don't matter, then there is really no downside of winning the K and playing a spade. Even if RHO won and gave his partner a diamond ruff somehow, we have not lost anything as we'll just pitch out diamond loser.

Of course undertricks do matter thus the hand being posted I guess.

[Phil]

Justin, I definitely agree. I think Han's straightforward line is logical one and the one I would take at the table. It plays quite nicely if East is indeed 3433.

I'm trying to decipher Clee's comment about how we would play if RHO jumped to 4♥. I cannot see a different line that is appealing.

[rogerclee]

Phil the point was that on the auction 2H X 4H 4S, the play problem is the same, but now you have a decision to make as to how likely RHO is actually 3433 (or, possibly, 3424). Remember you are down 2 if you are wrong.

IMO, whether you should play to make on the auction 2H X 4H 4S depends on a lot of factors and is not a B/I problem.

[Phil]

 rogerclee, on 2011-January-12, 15:55, said:

Phil the point was that on the auction 2H X 4H 4S, the play problem is the same, but now you have a decision to make as to how likely RHO is actually 3433 (or, possibly, 3424). Remember you are down 2 if you are wrong.

IMO, whether you should play to make on the auction 2H X 4H 4S depends on a lot of factors and is not a B/I problem.

Roger, if anyone judges to play for -1 at IMPs based on the latter auction because RHO is 'unlikely' to be 3433..well, let's just say I don't believe them.

[rogerclee]

If anyone judges to always play to make their contract at IMPs regardless of the number of undertricks that will occur if they are wrong...well let's just say they are bad at math!

[Phil]

 rogerclee, on 2011-January-12, 18:23, said:

If anyone judges to always play to make their contract at IMPs regardless of the number of undertricks that will occur if they are wrong...well let's just say they are bad at math!

I suppose you've tried for overtricks and risked your contract on the same premise?

[rogerclee]

I don't know what you are trying to persuade me of.

If you have the option of a small minus score, or a large minus score some high percentage of the time or a high plus score some small percentage of the time, then it is better to take the small minus score.

This is a fact, not an opinion.

[Phil]

 rogerclee, on 2011-January-12, 18:36, said:

I don't know what you are trying to persuade me of.

If you have the option of a small minus score, or a large minus score some high percentage of the time or a high plus score some small percentage of the time, then it is better to take the small minus score.

This is a fact, not an opinion.

I'm not trying to persuade you of anything and I really don't understand this comment.

As far as the hand you posted - why is -2 a "large minus score" and -1 a "small minus score"? Its not like we are in a doubled contract and we have the option of playing for a strange distribution to make, but if we are wrong we risk some "large minus score".

Its fine to discuss generalities, but on this particular hand, I cannot see any rational reason to not try to make. I also do not see why a 3433 occurs a "small percentage of the time". I know plenty of players (me for instance) that would boost to 4♥ with Axx Axxx xxx Kxx r/r (btw the vulnerability in the hand diagram is wrong).

[Antraxxx]

I'm sorry, I'm clearly behind here, but how do you avoid losing K♣, A♠ and a diamond along with the original heart? Even if RHO is forced to play a club, if he has Kxx the K will still take a trick, no?

[quiddity]

 Antraxxx, on 2011-January-13, 01:37, said:

I'm sorry, I'm clearly behind here, but how do you avoid losing K♣, A♠ and a diamond along with the original heart? Even if RHO is forced to play a club, if he has Kxx the K will still take a trick, no?

After the SA is ducked on the first round, you lead a club to the king and they knock out your second diamond stopper. But now you play on clubs. LHO is out of spades and RHO has to follow to 3 clubs. On the fourth club he can ruff but you overruff, ruff a heart, and lead the fifth club to pitch your diamond loser.

[Antraxxx]

Okay, thanks. I couldn't fit my mind around the whole line of play.